Peter Emmerson

2.3.2 Fluctuations in the balance of influence, uncertainty and authoritarianism: idealism is still alive and well in 20^th century.

Even though there has been a formal discussion of the ideal of uncertainty for quite some time is has made little headway. Thus, even where authoritarian figurations are more constrained and quiet, and a diversity of discourses develops, the growth in influence of uncertainty, never mind relative uncertainty, has been slow. There is a direct analogy here with Darwin’s ideas on species formation. In extreme climates only very specialised, limited varieties of life forms can flourish. Where absolute rulers are in place, authoritarian governance is more likely and any form of resistance is more easily driven out. Uncertainty as a mode of perception may be anathema to absolute rulers, who thrive by their very nature as guardians of the absolute truth, exterminating if necessary those who resist or threaten the position of the figuration which they lead. Where the tools of social repression such as violence, available to governing figurations have to be controlled, models of uncertainty are more likely to flourish and prevail as they have done since the 17^th century in western Europe and related cultures.

However, the conditions for less authoritarian styles of governance are contingent and therefore reversible. The voices of highly influential absolutist figurations are only muted by such developments until the balance of social influence moves back in their favour, when the truth-finders can be re-engaged to provide the ideological underpinning for a renewed bout of authoritarianism: the example of British governance since 1979 is a case in point. The democratising changes in the balance of social influence in favour of organized labour that contributed to the Labour landslide election victory and the formation of the welfare state after WW2, were accompanied by a growth in the level of uncertainty that for many became too much to bear; even those it had favoured. Thus, the Thatcher government was elected to reinstate order, a euphemism for certainty, with the tacit agreement of a large number of people in the UK who were culturally opposed to its market economic ethos. Of course, relative uncertainty has not gone away; it is just less visible curtained by conviction politics, backed by what Althusser termed the ‘repressive state apparatus’, and luck: it is arguable that the successful campaign to re-take the Falklands saved the Thatcher government, even though so many people perished in the process. Governing figurations can reassert authority by making idealistic promises that the future is in their control. Nonetheless, such promises are found wanting as the complexity of relatively uncertain variables such as those pertaining to human social networks defeat their over-blown statements: the credit crunch is the most notable recent example; the latest of a long list.